The National Confab, Arewa Irredentism, and Managing Resistance to Change.

When Buhari and Idiagbon toppled Shagari's Government, there was no social media. When IBB and Abacha came, also, there was also no social media. Nigeria of today is not the Nigeria of the civil war era. Besides, the leadership of the Nigerian Armed Forces is no longer exclusively a regional affair. Today, Nigerians will not be readily disposed to the idea of a military intervention under the guise of corruption of the system that, history has proven, they are not capable of eradicating. Any undemocratic change in the political system short of a total revolution will suffer rejection. I do fervently hold that Northern political leaders, intent on maintaining the status quo, are not making the right judgment trying to impede the essence and purpose of the ongoing National Conference. Yes, Nigeria is a geographical expression. Pa Awo said so. Sir Almadu Bello alluded to it. But northern political leaders lived it. In their actions and pronouncements, there is Northern Nigeria first before the "other Nigerians." Ask Dr. Junaid Mohammed. Ask Professor Ango Abdullahi. Ask Professor Jubrin Aminu or Professor Yadudu. If you are still in doubt, ask the Arewa Conservative Forum or the Northern Elders. And that is not the status quo we want to maintain. You cannot want me and hate me. I beg to move. 

There has always been at least one of them in every Government since 1960. These individuals are more powerful and more influential than the federal government itself. That's the genesis of our structural problem as a nation, which in turn, defines the quality of our leadership. To eradicate the corruption in the system, you must first eliminate the entrenched structural distortion that breeds leaders without ideas. It takes quality leadership to fight corruption. No, they want to perpetuate the distortion of our federal system that perpetuates the bulk of our present leadership.

They had the final say over our constitutional drafting process as well as in the creation of states and local governments. By the way, how did Kano State come to have 44 Local Government Councils? Is that the nature of the status quo we should be proud of and willing to maintain?

Mr. Festus Eze Odimegwu succumbed to pressure mounted by the Governor of Kano State and quit his position as the Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC). His offence was that he doubted the veracity of the last census conducted by the NPC. Indeed, there is a nexus between population superiority, embellished or not, and the number of local government councils or states created. So, the Governor's concern is suspect. Is that the nature of the status quo we want to perpetuate?

In addition, the same clique thought it was an aberration, allowing Moshood Abiola to assume the Presidency. And they subverted the emerging democratic process. Till this very moment, no one outside the clique knows how the decision was taken to annul Abiola's mandate. When reality came, they capitulated. They happily imposed Obasanjo, the Clarence Thomas of Egbe Omo Oduduwa, on us. But they gambled. Baba was no longer the docile General, the Yoruba-hating General who succeeded Murtala Mohammed. He is emancipated.

That misreading of Baba's current state of mind, as well as ignorance of the emerging trends in Nigeria and global politics by IBB and his collaborators, signalled the end of feudalism and the disappearance of the dominance of the Nigerian political system at the federal level by the Arewa adherents. By implication, President Jonathan is their creation. And he is going to be their last. Quote me on that.

I want to repeat: that era is gone – the era of feudal dominance and manipulation of our body politic is gone. There is no longer a monolithic north or a genuine umbrella body representing Arewans or interested in emancipating the talakawas and the almajiris from mental and economic entanglement/slavery prevalent in the northern region of Nigeria.

The Mud Houses and the unsightly pictures of decades of decadence littering every gamut of northern countryside that the world has come to see and know of the north, thanks, unfortunately, to Boko Haram's attacks, prove how unrepresentative and insincere northern political leaders are.

Where is the socio-economic empowerment? True leadership is about motivation in power. Though it is lacking nationwide, it is more pronounced in the northern part of Nigeria. The power clique massively underdeveloped the greater part of the geographical north, and I am afraid to add, the real class struggle/warfare is yet to come.

You cannot corner the means of production as well as the machinery of Government; frustrate the distribution of wealth and purposeful governance at the same time, and expect to be voted into Aso Rock again. Governing and political power are about service.

Often, they apply religion and bogus claims of the threat of southern dominance to hijack and arrest the conscience and judgment of average northerners. And in the process, succeeded in under-educating and under-developing them over the years. Not anymore; the cat is now out of the bag. 

The Sharia Law initiative is merely a facade, contrived to extort trust and consolidate their hold on power. The Northern Elders and the Arewa Conservative Forum do not represent the people of the geographical north - the talakawas and the almajiris. They represent their political interests and business empire.

Truth is, with the status quo remaining unaltered, the explosion of almajiris culture, coupled with Boko Haram's resistance to civilisation, the likelihood of any member of this clique ever testing power again at the national level remains infinitesimal. A northern President, if ever it happens, will not be based on "it is the turn of the north to produce the next President." It must be on the ground of credibility or trustworthiness of the candidate in the eyes of every Nigerian voter. In other words, a northern candidate or consensus candidate at the behest of Northern Elders or Arewa Conservative Forum will not sell across the length and breadth of Nigeria. Not now. Not anymore.

We have, no doubt, come of age. The occupation of Aso Rock has ceased to be an exclusive hijack or resolution of IBB and Baba or the Northern Elders. It has come to be the decision of Nigerian voters.

Therefore, this Confab is an opportunity for northern political leaders to collaborate with their southern colleagues to deliberate and put in place some mechanisms for a true federal structure - a federal system that will ensure that the component states exercise as much power as the central government for the good of all. If we have to revisit the offshore and onshore dichotomy, I'm for it. Whatever the nature of the agreement we structured, we should always remember that in the event of any disaster in connection with oil/gas exploration in the high seas, it is the littoral states that suffer the most. Trying to unite to outsmart southern delegates as northern delegates are reported doing presently, to defeat the essence and purpose of this Confab, will not serve anyone any good. Try a Military coup, and this country will be up in flames for a real revolution. This is the time to put in place a TRUE FEDERAL SYSTEM, or you risk losing everything. A foundation has to be built on something. Happy deliberation.