The 2015 Nigerian Presidential Campaign: Intolerance, The Enemy Within, and APC Challenges!

From all indications, one important factor that will determine the outcome of the coming Presidential election won’t be the party with the most Dollars to burn between now and the day of the election, but to what extent General Buhari’s fans and hate groups are managed and domesticated throughout the campaign. In other words, what will become of Nigeria in the second week of February, 2015, and whether or not the change and the revolution are televised is dependent on the willingness of anti-GEJ groups to accept the fact that changes, democracy and democratic values thrive best under a tranquil political environment. And it is about tolerance. That is an albatross calling for immediate and definitive diagnosis, and diligent and decisive resolution by the APC leadership. Because the progressives have much at stake, much to gain, and much more to lose in this election. 

It is a no-brainer, the Buhari's ticket means a lot to different people differently. Truth is, some followers of the retired General firmly believe that, with or without Professor Osinbajo, he is indeed in the race to recover for a utopia northern Nigeria the Presidency that was stolen from them by the "shoe-less one from Utuoke." In this category you will find the most radical and die-hard elements within the All People Congress (APC). Not left out are all the irredentist northern elders and all the Professor Anglo Abdulahis of the Arewa Consultative Forum - reveling in the outdated philosophy of a 'no northern candidate/presidency no Nigeria.' 

And until the leadership of APC and concerned real progressives of northern extraction rein in on these hate groups - imbue them with the basic truth and understanding that Gen Buhari is not in the race to become the President of "an Arewa Republic", but that of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the better it is for the party and brighter the chances of the fulfillment of the much hyped and the most talked about revolution. 

Few days ago, it was reported that irate mobs ambushed and disrupted the convoy of the Governor of Gombe State, while on a campaign trail canvassing for votes for President Jonathan in Kashere, Akko Local Government Area of the state. The Governor, like any other Governor or voter in Nigeria, has a protected constitutional right to market his Presidential candidate before any audience or community in the country. 

That the Governor and his entourage had to seek refuge at the Palace of the Emir of the town, while on a legitimate engagement, is in every respect, worrisome and inconsistent, not just with the letter and the spirit of our electoral laws, but with the voting rights that are protected by our constitution, and above all, inconsistent with the democratic values and the egalitarian principles amply projected by APC leadership. 

In sum, the thesis of this short piece is not whether APC will win or be defeated, it is the imminent impact of the unbridled intolerance, and the near probability that it will not create room for a winning candidate to emerge come February 14, 2015. That is my fear - managing the extremism and antics of the die-hard, albeit faithful adherents/followers of the Buhari's ticket during the campaign. They are the enemy within whose overzealous resolve may likely turn counterproductive.

Here is the deal: if any political party, either by design or omission, is denied the right to campaign in any state, regions, or community, chances are that there won’t be any election in the affected state, region, or community. And in the event of an impasse or stalemate developing, the incumbent stays in office. Worst case scenario, an interim government will evolve. But in no case will a President Buhari or a government with the goals and objectives of APC emerging at the national level. 

In sum, without a free and fair campaign, the possibility of a free and fair election taking place is moot. A free and fair campaign is one without intimidation, harm or threat of harm to those who share contrary views. And that is a daunting challenge that Buhari and APC leadership must find ways to address and preempt starting from this very moment. Because the progressives have much at stake and much more to lose in this election. This is a timely warning. And I don't want to be vindicated.

Happy New Year in Advance, everybody.