Here is my take: In the event of self-defense and reprisal attacks unplugged, in the magnitude, style, and sequence as forcefully demanded by Elder Theophylous Danguma a few days ago, the Nigerian Armed Forces would be caught pants down - vulnerable. They do not have the strength - loyalty, especially - to overcome series of coordinated onslaughts against the Herders in all the endangered communities in the affected regions of Nigeria. That's a reality we cannot ignore, and that's what motivates this essay.
Take it or leave, in Nigeria, the Fulani tribe is a minority tribe. You can translate that to the statistics in the Armed Forces, their dominance of the upper archeon of the Armed Forces, notwithstanding. Their connivance and endorsement of the modus operandi of the Herders within and outside the Barracks are open secrets.
Though they maintain control and exercise absolute power over our security networks, they no longer enjoy the loyalty or strength to mount the type of counter-attacks that saw to the collapse of the Orkar’s Coup more than a decade ago. Besides, the Internet or Smart Phones was yet to gain a foothold on our communication networks at the time.
It's also worth noting that the systemic purge in the Armed Forces of perceived rebels and potential coup-plotters, clandestinely perfected and executed in recent times notwithstanding, when push comes to shove, the larger majority of our men and women uniform who do not endorse the duplicity and distorted loyalty of the Service Chiefs will rise in unison to defend and uphold the integrity and the much-cherished esprit de corps tradition of the Military.
Two Governors are now on records, stating that they alerted the IGP, the Presidency and the State Commissioner of Police of pending attacks and asked for protection. And on each occasion, no support came from the Police or the Army. The attackers came, killed, raped and maimed and disappeared into the thin air, unapprehended.
That would not have happened without the logistics support of the Herders collaborators in our Armed Forces. By the way, it was the Military that came to the village a day later to forcefully arrest all the male folks on sight on the rumors that they were planning a counterattack against the Herdsmen.
I'm not reporting news or doing news analysis here. I'm stating an opinion, to wit, in the event of nation-wide reprisal attacks on the cattle Rearers or Herders, the entire Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria cannot mount a preemptive or defensive strategy that is sustainable and effective as they did in the East, the Middle-Belt and in Benin City. The army will kill itself in the process.
The blood of the innocent victims will rise and sing - a redemption song, a song of freedom and of a rising sun - of new beginnings and the cleansing of bleeding hearts of friends and foes glued by the tragedy of intolerance, hatred, and greed.
President Buhari and his Security Advisers are wise enough not to bank on the connivance and the duplicity of certain elements (the Boko Haram sympathizers and Herders bedfellows) within the Nigerian Armed Forces for too long. That would be the fastest route to a mutiny in the Armed Forces because those who are aiding and abetting the cattle herders within the Nigerian Military are in the minority. Learn, President Buhari, learn, read, and be wise. Do not plunge Nigeria into another Ruanda and Burundi. The Uthman dan Fodio's style of "mass attack conquering crusade" after peacefully accommodated by friendly host communities cannot be replicated in modern time. The handwritings are on the wall. A word is enough for the wise.
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