Sacrificing Crude Oil for a Confederal Option.

Introduction

If a Presidential candidate who espouses True Federalism or Decentralization of Powers (Restructuring), and at the same time, ran with an Igbo man or woman as his Vice Presidential pick, cannot rule Nigeria, in a similar vein, a candidate whose mandate came into being on the strength of apparent illegalities such as underage voting and other proven violations of the applicable laws, cannot rule Nigeria either. We are either one union, adhering to the same regulations and similar standards in their applications, or we are not. This essay is my suggestions for the way forward.

In light of the revelations so far made and seen, chronicling the gross abuse of the electoral process and the enormity of the innocent blood that All The President Men ( Comrade Adam Oshiomhole, Rotimi Amaechi, Asiwaju Tinubu, El'Rufai, Buratai, and the Four Cabal) are willing to shed to perpetuate their hold on power at the center, I have no doubt in my mind that a Confederal system of government is a better alternative for Nigeria. In that case, the respective component units will be positioned to make their own laws and develop at their own pace; thus, de-emphasizing the "bloody" interest in the control of the central government and the oil wealth.

Theoretically, a federal system of government is midway between a unitary system (where the central governments delegate powers to the states and local governments) and a confederal system (where the federating states are more powerful than the central government). Let's break it down.

The Unitary Model

Constitutionally, Nigeria is operating a federal system of government, where each state is supposedly the master of a substantial part of its affairs as an equal partner with Abuja (the Federal Government). However, in reality, we are operating a Unitary System of Government, where the Central Government is supreme; thus, making all the laws, and in total controls of everything. In the process, it gives handouts to the component states as it deems fit. Today, Nigerian States are like local government councils, because they exist at the mercy of the Central Government, with the only exception of Lagos State. The United Kingdom is a Unitary State.

The Federal Model

A federal system of governments involves the delegation of power between the national government, the federating states, and local government councils. Their respective powers and responsibilities are embedded in the Legislative Lists, made up of the Concurrent Legislative List and the Exclusive Legislative List. It consists of three arms of governments - the Executive, the Legislature, and the Judiciary. The ability of the component states to manage their own resources, raise revenues, participate in the ratification of the national constitution, make laws, provide for security, and regulate for the general well-being of its citizens within its geographical and political boundaries are some of the fundamental elements of a federal system of governments. The United States of America is a good example.

The Confederal Model

In a confederal arrangement or confederacy, the central government only exercises power and authority reserved for it or delegated to it by the component states. In other words, the component states dominate the central governments and operate as a semi-independent (loose) nation-state. Canada and Switzerland are some of the few countries where Confederacy is presently in operation.  As a matter of fact, that was the model that gentlemen like the late Chief Olu Aboderin of the Punch Newspaper, and late Chief Bisi Onabanjo, former Governor of Ogun State, stridently advocated before they died. 

These gentlemen knew what the occupation of the Central Government means to some folks and the do or die approach, most often, deployed to securing its occupation. In the process, many exceptional Nigerians paid for it with their own lives or were killed, mostly by Northern Military and Political Leaders, fighting to maintain control of the humongous power and the petrodollars that Aso Rock bequeaths.

It is trite to say that the Treasonable Felony Trial and the imprisonment of Papa Awo were the offshoots of distorted federalism. It culminated in the bloody civil war, after the assassination of Balewa, the Sadauna of Sokoto, Okotiebor, Akintola, just to name a few. Papa Awo and his economic team in the Western Region were too hot to handle or rivaled by the other regions. This began the conspiracy to derail the Awo momentum by any means necessary. They were arrested, tried, and the rest is not just history but remains irredeemable miscalculation on the use and exercise of state power by the Balewa Federal Government. The recent Presidential election is a reminder. We are too ethnically polarized to be a Federation, talkless of a Unitary model.

Aguiyi Ironsi, Centralization (Unitary Model), and the Second Coup

It was the centralized administration introduced by Col Aguiyi Ironsi after the First Coup that compelled the "Young Northern Military Officers" to wage the Second Coup which saw the assassination of Col Aguiyi Ironsi and the eventual civil war. All the Young Officers, led by Yakubu Gowon, Danjuma, and Murtala Mohammed wanted, was a continuation of regionalism, which was more like a Confederal arrangement. And that arrangement was consistent with the regional government espoused by the late Sadauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello. 

However, with the emergence of crude oil as the black gold, and its revenues skyrocketing, centralization of power became the acceptable standard of government. 

The same Young Northern Military Officers who were bloodily opposed to Centralization of Powers, turned modern-day champions of a dominant center, when they emerged as Military Head of States and Presidents respectively. Regionalism, which they hitherto collectively promoted, became an aberration.

They went about consolidating power at the center and promoting a Unitary System of Government stealthily, while at the same time, dismantling the hitherto untouchable Northern region into as many states and local government councils as possible. And it wasn't by accident.

Implications and the Intended Goals

In essence, the more states and the more local government councils you have, the more revenues coming to your region from the crude oil via the Federation Account. Also, the higher the numbers of states and local government councils your region commands, the larger the names of Senators and House of Rep members you are entitled to send to the National Assembly. And by implications, the more votes you have under your control to dominate and influence the affairs of the nation and to frustrate southern interests if you want to. For example, the Petroleum Industry Bill.

If you read the arguments in the NASS concerning the interpretation of "Host Community" clause in the old PIB, you should be able to discern how unified and parochial most Northern lawmakers are on every national policy where they are seemingly not directly benefiting.

Today, the PIB as it then was, is not a law because of Section 10 of the old Bill, which makes provision for 10% of the net profit of oil companies doing business in the Niger Delta for the host communities. The host communities are the communities where oil companies are directly engaged in oil and gas exploratory activities. And the primary objective is to compensate for the recurrent pollution, ecologically related ills, and unforeseen catastrophic occurrences. Mind you, not a dime of that funds is from the Federal Government or the Federation Account.

Making a Sacrifice

There is no doubt, it is crude oil and NNPC that are holding us together as one nation. And I am prepared to make a deal. Let's create a joint enterprise between the Federal Government and each state in the oil-producing areas concerning the numbers of oil wells in the particular state. The percentage share should be mutually negotiated between the Federal Government and each state. The same formula should be applied in the management and exploitation of the natural resources deposit in every state in the union.

In that case, the Federal Government can continue to dispense handouts as it wishes to the nonviable states from it shares in the joint enterprise. So, there won't be any need to retain the NNDC and the Ministry of Niger Delta. And the demand that a particular region or state should wait for another state or region to catch up in terms of economic and social development as suggested by certain influential leaders should be a thing of the past. I write this paragraph in light of the arguments given a few years ago by Chief Anthony Sani and Professor Anglo Abdulahi to frustrate the passage of the PIB because of the provisions of Section 10 (the Host Community).

Conclusion

If we decentralize powers at Abuja and devolve them to the states and local councils, and at the same time, cede certain percentage of the oil wealth and proceeds from other mineral resources deposit to the Federal Government for defense and support to the indolent states, I do not think we will have another Adam Ishiomhole, Rotimi Amaechi, Asiwaju Tinubu, Buratai, the Four Cabal, and El'Rufai pushing an infirm character down our throat again. After all, Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sadauna of Sokoto, was not too keen about leaving Kaduna to Lagos to form a Government at the center in 1960 following our independence. Instead, he sent his second in command, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa to Lagos to form the new government. And he stayed behind in Kaduna as the head of the NPC (Northern People Congress), managing the affairs of the Northern region.