Overcoming the Uncomfortable Truth in the Search of Nigeria's Economic Development. 

SYNOPSIS!

The extent of our development as a nation-state is a mirror of the extent the Hausa/Fulani can dominate. In other words, our growth index hinges on their ability or capacity to be in charge. To be in charge and dominate, demand a competent and highly mobile trained workforce. If that mobile or competent workforce is absent, it dilutes their ability to be the driving force or the major players in a larger market. Therefore, the culmination or otherwise of that imaginary larger market is conditioned on their ability to generate a mobile and competent workforce. If they can't generate the mobile workforce to dominate the scene in the eventuality of that larger market, then the market is history - it is not a national priority. Let's try the explanation below to drive home the thesis.  

When they rejected Chief Anthony Enahoro's 1953 motion for self-government in 1956, it wasn't on the ground that Nigeria lacks the human capital or managerial wherewithal to occupy the vacuum created by the exit of the British Colonial masters. And it had nothing to do with the ability of the new nation to be the driving force of her destiny. The argument that the Northern region propounded to thwart the motion was that they don't want second colonization. In other words, if they don't have the resources, human and otherwise, to propel their wheel of fortune at the same level as the South, and at the same time, to dominate the new government at the center, then the proposed 1956 date was unrealistic and not in the national interest. 

Sixty years later, Nigeria has not been able to establish religious and ethnic neutral benchmarks to define what constitutes National Interests. The spirit that underscores the rejection of the 1953 motion for self-government in 1956 remains with us to this moment. That ethnic-influenced spirit is the Nigerian tragedy that we must first dislodge for a true nation-state that God wants us to be when He gave us the crude oil and gas-rich Niger Delta and the fertile land of the Benue Plateau. 

DISSECTING THE THESIS! 

Our economy has long outgrown the capacity of the Apapa Wolf and the Tin Can Island Sea Port. How come we've never considered it economically prudent to build other Tin Can Island capacity Ports at Ugheli, Warri, Yenagoa, Onitsha, Port Harcourt, Calabar, or Bakassi Peninsular in other to decongest the Igunmu/Apapa/Mile2 axis of Lagos? Just for a second, forget about the job opportunities and the expansion of our revenue base from such new ports, and dwell on the traffic gridlock at Apapa. 

Or is this a conspiracy of the Yoruba and the Hausa/Fulani to undermine the economic strength of the Igbos and the Niger Delta? 

Also, it is faster and more economical to move goods from Akwa Ibom or Bakasi Penisular to Adamawa, Gombe, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi, Taraba, and Benue States than from Apapa Wolf. The economic advantages of that link to the North-Eastern states and Nigeria's GDP cannot be quantified in monetary terms. Then, why are we lackadaisical in opening up Nigeria to the rest of the global community through the South-South coastline?

The reason for not doing it is not for lack of bold visions. Or the financial wherewithal. But control. Do they have the manpower to manage the volumes of commerce that would be coming in and out of Nigeria via the South-South corridor? The question is not whether Nigeria has the management expertise to run the volumes of trade, immigration, and Customs formalities. But whether the North has the capacity to generate the number of Customs and Immigrations senior staff required to head the sector. They don't. But they want to dominate the industry.   

If you have three or more Tin Can Island capacity Sea Ports on the South-South coastal lines, comes the demand for qualified Immigration and Customs Officers to man the ports. They don't have the trained manpower or a ready pool of college-educated Northerners for them to tap into for the top positions. If they lack the manpower, consequently, they are losing hold of one of the greatest revenue-earning establishments in Nigeria. If Lagos is all that their oligarchs and commission agents have the capacity to dominate and control, good enough for Nigeria. And they have done that over the last 50 years.

Granted, English is not our first language, but have you ever wondered why we have Soldiers and Police Officers who have difficulties communicating in the English language or completing a sentence in the English language? Have you ever asked yourself why we are recruiting captured Boko Haram sect into the Nigerian Armed Forces when the majority of them cannot communicate in our official English language? The truth is that they don't have an educated population ready, capable, and eligible to spread around all the branches of our armed forces and security agencies. Therefore, anything goals. 

If you eliminate Federal Character and Quota System in the enlistment process into our armed forces and security agencies, Nigeria will have the most sophisticated military and security agencies in the developing world. Because the thousands of unemployed graduates from the South would readily enlist. If we do that would the Northern region be colonized and be subjected to Southern ridicule? No, at all. It will be in the best interest of the Nigerian military and the armed forces. 

Given that scenario, the super-rich oligarch of the North and influencers of contracts who feed on our ethnic and religious divide to perpetuate their dominance of all the federal institutions will no longer enjoy a free ride with our oil wealth. It is not the North as a geographical expression that benefits, but a few of them. They are the ones holding Nigeria hostage, sabotaging our overall growth. And that is why what troubles you about Nigeria doesn't trouble them. Push comes to shove, and they will still get whatever they want to get from Nigeria and still be able to corner more wealth and live luxuriously.

ANALYZING SOUTHERN LEADERSHIP TRAGEDY. 

Why didn't President Obasanjo or Jonathan as Southern extraction unbundle the stranglehold, especially with respect to the Customs and Immigration Services? The first question is whether they were aware of the entrenched stranglehold or how the trend impacted or realpolitik and GDP. 

It is about identifying the main issue in a given case and framing the argument accordingly, backed by the applicable laws and precedents. Otherwise, Governor Bello of Kogi State who was defeated at the APC  Primaries would not have been made a Governor by the court. Simply put, the lawyer who represented Bello's opponent couldn't frame a legal issue and didn't know what to argue before the court. That's by the way. In the instant discussion, President Obasanjo and President Jonathan had no idea of what is holding Nigeria's economic growth down. They were hunting for globally renowned economists and performers to assist them in revitalizing our economy. They never had the like of the late bodacious Professor Claude Ake or the fearless Economist, late Professor Ojetunji Oboyade as brain powers of Southern extraction. 

 

President Obasanjo spent his second term, doing everything possible to emasculate his Vice President, Abubakar Atiku politically. He used Mallam El-Rufai as his emissary to the Northern region to lobby their important Traditional Rulers, with a view to endorsing his third term gamble. (See "The Accidental Public Servant" by Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai). And at the same time, doing everything to appease the international community by ceding the Bakassi Peninsular to Cameroon. President Obasanjo, Asiwaju Tinubu, and Comrade Adam Oshiomhole are beds of the same feather. They believe they are smarter than everyone. So, they are the last to buy into the theory of the Northern monopoly of power within our MDAs. 

What about President Jonathan? He is an honest man who wasn't prepared for the job. Besides, he did not have the exposure nor wisdom to discern the stranglehold under discussion. Worse of all, he didn't know how to build a team of urbane and progressive-leaning academics to invigorate his intellect. And these are the guys who would have taken him on a tutorial ride on Nigerian realpolitik and how to unbundle the entanglement. Also, like President Obasanjo, he did everything to be the good boy of the Northern traditional rulers for a possible second-term run.  

To see how shallow his Niger Delta team is, remember, his Petroleum Resources Minister, Diezani Alison-Madueke couldn't assemble a formidable team to ensure the passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) into law in the National Assembly. You cannot name one established intellectual in the capacity of Professor Claude Ake, Festus Iyayi, or Ojetunji Aboyade, Bolaji Akinyemi, or Beko Ransome Kuti in President Jonathan's inner circle? He has to, first of all, know that something is wrong with the status quo, before finding solutions. He didn't know. So, he could fight it. 

THE NORTHERN STRENGTH. 

Do you know why they've been able to sustain the stranglehold? Audacity. Most often, we parade a Third Eleven standard team against their First Eleven standard team. Figure that out. They have an edge because whenever push comes to shove, they go for the highly talented ones around them and tap into their wisdom for guidance. In the South, such talented ones are the enemies of the politicians, they are feared and resented rather than respected and patronize. 

Check this out: all the Northern radicals, mavericks, or fierce government critics have either served in the state or the federal government - Bala Muhammed, Jubrin Aminu, Atehiru Jegga, Mallam El-Rufai, Nuru Ribadu, Abubakar Rimi, Godwin Dabo, etc. But you cannot say the same about Southern radicals and human rights activists. Olisa Agbakoba, Gani Fawehimin, Festus Iyayi, Awojobi, Falan, Ken Saro Wiwa, etc. 

Another very disturbing trend is that most Southern Technocrats and academics in Federal Government jobs do overnight become strident antagonists of Southern interests and major critics of Southern values. Above all, they do everything possible to please their boss in anticipation of another federal government job. While they are busy playing the house boy role, their Northern colleagues are pulling all the strings to corner more federal presence and infrastructural facilities into their region, not knowing when another opportunity will come. That is our major tragedy as Southerners. And that explains why the few oligarchs that dominate our revenue streams and their sources remain entrenched. 

CONCLUSION

The dubious Cattle Colony, allegedly concocted by some "unknown soldiers" at the Ministry of Agriculture died not because Southern or Middle-Belt career civil servants at Federal Ministries or NASS members opposed it. It died because of the rebellion and condemnation from social media. 

That is the stage we are at now. The age of self-publishing. Of the reign of public intellectuals,  influencing new thinking in high places. Today, the Northern mavericks and intellectuals who are the sources of strength behind the Arewa mafia and power brokers are no longer interested in the pronouncement of Southern members of the National Assembly on how to move Nigeria forward. Rather, the views, writings, and opinions of Southern public affairs commentators in social media dominate. 

On the last note, we can talk all the big talks about the free market, regulated market, Keynesian theory, marxism,  or capitalism, and what's not, until we resolve Nigeria's social-cultural, ethnic, and religious divides, no theory will turn the Nigerian economy around. Not even the IMF or the World Bank experts can work the magic. Quote me on that. 

We are not a typical third-world country. We will never have a credible population census, real growth, and real democracy, applying global benchmarks, until the entrenched culture of "Hausa/Fulani first before the other Nigeria" is discredited and dismantled. It is doable, not because we hate the Hausa/Fulani, but because it is the right thing to do and the only way to sustainable peace and development throughout Nigeria. WE MUST FIRST AGREE THAT WE ARE ONE NATION OF EQUAL RIGHTS AND JUSTICE. If we cannot, then we have no business staying together. Peace.