DEBATING PASTOR YEMI OSINBAJO'S IMMINENT CASH HAUL

“Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, yet it did not fall, because it had its foundation on the rock. But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash.” Matthew 7: 24-27.

As you must have heard, the Vice President is about embarking on another cash disbursement all over again. What the Professor of Law is about to do again is mere cosmetic, a  lazy man's approach to an economic bailout that doesn't address the basic problems besetting our real growth. That cash disbursement is the easiest thing to do doesn't make it economically prudent. Think about the long-run effect. The fact that it is working in Europe and North America doesn't mean it is going to be positively impactful in Nigeria. Those countries have a stable power supply and good roads. We don't have those in Nigeria. First, take care of the infrastructural facilities, and watch the Nigerian economic blossom exponentially. I know your penchant for cash disbursement has no limit. And I did expect that you will embark on it again and that was why I wrote this short essay a few days ago, which I have attached below. 

DISCUSSING ECONOMIC SOLUTION IN THE MIDST OF A POLITICAL STORM: A COMMONSENSE ANALYSIS. 

A SYNOPSIS

There is something repugnant about the Nigerian economy and its leadership that defies commonsense. In Nigeria, there are certain known peculiarities that make popular economic theories about spending and investment, as well as the creation of new markets and expansion of existing ones, unfit for our situation.

The truth is that when all the Adam Smith, Jeffrey Sachs, Marxists, Regulated, and Free Market activists of our world were writing or postulating their economic and public policy theories, they do so under certain irrefutable assumptions. Unfortunately, those assumptions do not apply to Nigeria. Nigerians, are by nature, entrepreneurial. They don't need your handouts. With basic infrastructural facilities on the ground, they will turn the Nigerian economy around in no time.

So, before we start regurgitating or copying Western Influenced Economic packages or Palliative measures, we must first look inward to see if the fundamentals and some assumptions underlying those theories and blueprints suit our realities. And that what this essay is about.

ANALYSIS

ONE. To the IMF/World Bank Economists, the fact that electricity/power supply is constant is irrefutable - more than assumption. In other words, when these foreign intellectuals and financial institutions were formulating their economic theories and bailout solutions, they didn't suffer any mental constraint about "NEPA don take light" or the occurrence of erratic power supply as the situation is in Nigeria.

You can't formulate investment mechanisms when entrepreneurs can't light up their offices and manufacturers do not have stable electricity to power their plants. Our youths, investors, and entrepreneurs are trooping to Nairobi and Accra because of the availability of basic infrastructural facilities. These cities boast of a regular power supply.

TWO. These Western intellectuals and theoreticians believe beyond every reasonable doubt that job opportunities must go to the best-qualified candidates or those with relevant work experience. They didn't anticipate nepotism, cronyism, federal character, quota system, or religious factors as it is the case in Nigeria.

THREE. The possibility or likelihood of Bandits or Kidnappers overpowering and replacing State-Troopers (Highway Patrol Officers) on our roads and subjecting commuters to indecent assaults, killing, kidnapping for ransom are hardly factored into their deliberations and prognosis. In Nigeria, we have lost count of the casualties of Nigerians in the hands of bandits and kidnappers.

And FOUR. In the Western world, there is an accepted maxim that goods and services must be delivered when and where due. In other words, the availability of high-speed rail and motorable interstate highways that will expedite the movement of goods and services is assumed. But every one of us knows that judicial notice cannot be taken of unhindered movement and delivery of goods and services in Nigeria when and where due. Think about Apapa Wharf road. The Lagos/Badagry Expressway and the Abuja/Lokoja/Auchi/Benin road.

Adam Smith didn't know that. Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University in New York, though very knowledgeable about the global economic situation, doesn't know that about Nigeria.

It is the same story with the World Bank and IMF Economists as well as all the Free Marketers of Nigerian intelligentsia. They never stoop to consider the peculiarity of Nigerian infrastructural facilities whenever they are in conferences and seminars discussion Nigerian economic wahala.

When last have you traveled by road between Benin City and Port-Harcourt, or between Benin City and Abuja, or between Badagry, Mile2, Apapa, and Obalende in Lagos State? And can you possibly count the number of Police Checkpoints between Lokoja/Okenne/Auchi/Benin Highway? Can you possibly put a price on the number of our loss due to incessant stop and go and delay due to bad roads?

CONCLUSION

These are some of our peculiarities that are not taught in Business School or in Economics Class or covered in most of the recommended Economic and Management textbooks. So, before you start proposing or embarking on bailout funds for small businesses, think again. There are underlying issues that you must address before their recommended solutions can work the anticipated magic. So, when next you read about how a certain Nigerian went to a certain country in South East Asia or Ruanda on behalf of the IMF and successfully resuscitated a near-comatose economy, ask yourself if the Nigerian Economist, encounter in those countries some of the Nigerian peculiarities enumerated in this piece. Until we are comfortable or bold enough or sincere enough to answer the question, rest assured that no amount of blueprints or solutions will make Nigeria experience real growth.