Vice Presidential Succession and the Futility of Osinbajo's Exit Debate.

In the past few months, we've been ceaselessly bombarded and deafened by the noise of the imminent doom of Vice President Osinbajo as well as an ongoing search for his replacement. And the man most often touted as his replacement is Reverend Tunde Bakare, a Buhari's protegee; though he is not enthusiastic about that characterization. Without any equivocation, the President cannot remove the Vice President from office. Period.  Granted, the Vice President serves under the whims and caprices of the President, but with respect to impeachment and removal from office, that is a constitutional issue. There are standard operating constitutional procedures that must be strictly adhered to. Therefore, I am unable to fathom the possibility of his removal from the office any time soon via executive fiat. That confidence is rooted in my reading and understanding of the provisions of the relevant subsections in section 146, section 143, and section 144 of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as amended. 

Section 146 (3) vests in the President the power of appointment of a new Vice President in the event of a vacancy in that office, but subject to the approval of the National Assembly. 

Section 146 (3) provides:

Where the office of Vice-President becomes vacant:-

(a) By reason of death or resignation, impeachment, permanent incapacity or removal in accordance with section 143 or 144 of this Constitution;

(b) By his assumption of the office of President in accordance with subsection (1) of this section; or

(c) For any other reason, the President shall nominate and, with the approval of each House of the National Assembly, appoint a new Vice-President.

Now, let's do a succinct digest of the salient subsections of section 143 and section 144 before a reading of the entire sections in the Addendum.

Section 143 covers gross misconduct, which can be effectuated via an impeachment proceeding at the National Assembly. 

It reads:
1) The President or Vice-President may be removed from office in accordance with the provisions of this section. 
(2) Whenever a notice of any allegation in writing signed by not less than one-third of the members of the National Assembly:- 
(a) is presented to the President of the Senate; 
(b) stating that the holder of the office of President or Vice-President is guilty of gross misconduct in the performance of the functions of his office.

Whereas the power to initiate impeachment proceedings on the ground of gross misconduct under section 143 is vested on the members of the National Assembly, the power to initiate removal from office under section 144 on medical grounds is vested on the Executive Council. And that is where it becomes tricky - power corrupt, and absolute power corrupt absolutely. However, that power under section 144 is not absolute - the Executive Council does not have the final say.

Section 144 reads:

(1) The President or Vice-President shall cease to hold office, if - 

(a) by a resolution passed by two-thirds majority of all the members of the executive council of the Federation it is declared that the President or Vice-President is incapable of discharging the functions of his office; and 
(b) the declaration is verified, after such medical examination as may be necessary, by a medical panel established under subsection (4) of this section in its report to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives. 

As you can see, even, if the President or the cabal exerted pressure on the members of the Executive Council (appointed by them) to declare the Vice President medically unfit to continue in office under section 144 (1) (a); nevertheless, section 144 (1) (b) provides a check on subsection (1) (a).

Let say, the Executive Council which is the creation of the cabal declared that Vice President Osinbajo is medically unfit to continue in office and vote him out accordingly, a Medical Panel must do an examination and present its findings to the Senate. This is not a childish game.  There is no modicum of evidence to support an inference of infirmity or physical debility that would warrant the Executive Council to initiate removal proceedings against the Vice President. Other than death and resignation, the Vice President remains unshaken. 

And with respect to gross misconduct and impeachment at the National Assembly, so far so good, there is no probable development to support an inference that the Vice President has abused his that would warrant or compel the National Assembly to commence impeachment proceeding against the Vice President. Again, gross misconduct is an objective test; the conduct or abuse of office must be glaring and ascertainable. 

Therefore, all the talks about the cabal and the Presidency fishing for a replacement for the Vice President is a bunch of BS. It will take a miracle for it to happen. I do not see the National Assembly initiating impeachment proceeding on bogus allegations. In a similar vein, I do not see the chances of any medical panel supporting the Executive Council if they suddenly and collectively turned deranged and voted the Vice President medically unfit to continue in office.

By the way, section 143 and section 144 also apply to the President with respect to removal from office on medical ground and gross misconduct.

Finally, on a related note, in my humble judgment, I strongly believe and hold that it is more reasonable, and in fact, will in no small measure, strengthen transparency and consistency in the body politic, if the next in line to occupy the vacated office of the Vice President or Deputy Governor as the case may be, is clearly defined and ascertainable in the constitution. In that case, either the Speaker of the House of Representative or the Senate President should be constitutionally defined to be the next in line in case of a vacancy in the office of the Vice President. 

To all my friends and family members who have been bombarding me with stories and videos via WhatsApp of the pending doom of the Vice President, I do hope you will also find the grace to share this essay as well.

End of the story.

Addendum:

Below, is a verbatim reproduction of section 143 and section 144 of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as amended for your perusal. 

143. (1) The President or Vice-President may be removed from office in accordance with the provisions of this section. 
(2) Whenever a notice of any allegation in writing signed by not less than one-third of the members of the National Assembly:- 
(a) is presented to the President of the Senate; 
(b) stating that the holder of the office of President or Vice-President is guilty of gross misconduct in the performance of the functions of his office, detailed particulars of which shall be specified, 
the President of the Senate shall within seven days of the receipt of the notice cause a copy thereof to be served on the holder of the office and on each member of the National Assembly, and shall also cause any statement made in reply to the allegation by the holder of the office to be served on each member of the National Assembly.
(3) Within fourteen days of the presentation of the notice to the President of the Senate (whether or not any statement was made by the holder of the office in reply to the allegation contained in the notice) each House of the National Assembly shall resolve by motion without any debate whether or not the allegation shall be investigated. 
(4) A motion of the National Assembly that the allegation be investigated shall not be declared as having been passed unless it is supported by the votes of not less than two-thirds majority of all the members of each House of the National Assembly. 
(5) Within seven days of the passing of a motion under the foregoing provisions, the Chief Justice of Nigeria shall at the request of the President of the Senate appoint a Panel of seven persons who in his opinion are of unquestionable integrity, not being members of any public service, legislative house or political party, to investigate the allegation as provide in this section. 
(6) The holder of an office whose conduct is being investigated under this section shall have the right to defend himself in person and be represented before the Panel by legal practitioners of his own choice. 
(7) A Panel appointed under this section shall - 
(a) have such powers and exercise its functions in accordance with such procedure as may be prescribed by the National Assembly, and 
(b) within three months of its appointment report its findings to each House of the National Assembly.
(8) Where the Panel reports to each House of the National Assembly that the allegation has not been proved, no further proceedings shall be taken in respect of the matter. 
(9) Where the report of the Panel is that the allegation against the holder of the office has been proved, then within fourteen days of the receipt of the report at the House the National Assembly shall consider the report, and if by a resolution of each House of the National Assembly supported by not less than two-thirds majority of all its members, the report of the Panel is adopted, then the holder of the office shall stand removed from office as from the date of the adoption of the report. 
(10) No proceedings or determination of the Panel or of the National Assembly or any matter relating thereto shall be entertained or questioned in any court

(11) In this section - 

"gross misconduct" means a grave violation or breach of the provisions of this Constitution or a misconduct of such nature as amounts in the opinion of the National Assembly to gross misconduct. 

144. (1) The President or Vice-President shall cease to hold office, if - 

(a) by a resolution passed by two-thirds majority of all the members of the executive council of the Federation it is declared that the President or Vice-President is incapable of discharging the functions of his office; and 
(b) the declaration is verified, after such medical examination as may be necessary, by a medical panel established under subsection (4) of this section in its report to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
(2) Where the medical panel certifies in the report that in its opinion the President or Vice-President is suffering from such infirmity of body or mind as renders him permanently incapable of discharging the functions of his office, a notice thereof signed by the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives shall be published in the Official Gazette of the Government of the Federation. 
(3) The President or Vice-President shall cease to hold office as from the date of publication of the notice of the medical report pursuant to subsection (2) of this section. 
(4) the medical panel to which this section relates shall be appointed by the President of the Senate, and shall comprise five medical practitioners in Nigeria:- 
(a) one of whom shall be the personal physician of the holder of the office concerned; and 
(b) four other medical practitioners who have, in the opinion of the President of the Senate, attained a high degree of eminence in the field of medicine relative to the nature of the examination to be conducted in accordance with the foregoing provisions.
(5) In this section, the reference to "executive council of the Federation" is a reference to the body of Ministers of the Government of the Federation, howsoever called, established by the President and charged with such responsibilities for the functions of government as the President may direct.